Abstract

This study analyzed variability and time series trend analysis of climate and small holder farmers’ perception in the case of Janamora Woreda, Northwestern Ethiopia. For this study primary data was collected through questionnaire from 138 respondents selected through multi-stage sampling technique based on agro-ecology. Secondary data was collected from meteorological stations. Mann-Kendall and Chi-square tests were employed to test observed and perceived climate change and variability by using XLSTAT 2016 and SPSS version 23 respectively. Standardized rainfall anomaly index was used to determine the dry and wet years and the nature of trends. The results revealed significant increasing trend in annual average temperature in local stations except Debark and gridded temperature data. The rainfall revealed insignificant trend and high variability. About half of the study period revealed a negative rainfall anomaly. Similarly, 69.6 and 80.4% of the interviewed farmers were aware of an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall respectively. Moreover, χ² test showed that a significant variation (significant at P<0.05) in perception to temperature and rainfall between agro-ecology, gender and education status. Therefore, it is essential to design planned climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity and resilience of rainfed dependent smallholder and further studies should be conducted in the future.

Key Words: Trend Analysis, Temperature, Rainfall, Mann-kendall trend test, Perception, Janamora