Abstract

The study investigated Nigeria’s climate variability (CV) and food security (FS) using secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and NIMET. Unit root test was carried out using Augmented Dickey-Fuller to ascertain the stationarity of the variables, and they were found to be stationary at order I (0) and I (1). ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag) bound test was used to analyse the model as no long-run co-integration existed among the variables. The result of a short-run Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis was used to examine the impact of CV on food security in Nigeria. The Granger causality test was used to test for the causality among the variables in the model as well as checked the direction of causality among variables. The result revealed that the short-run autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) showed that the value of agricultural output (a proxy for food security) of the previous year had an insignificant effect on CV in Nigeria. The result also showed a uni-directional causality between carbon emission and food security, between temperature and food security, and between government expenditure on agriculture and food security. The study concluded that the FS of the previous year had an insignificant effect on CV in Nigeria. Still, government expenditure on agriculture was positive but insignificant on food security in Nigeria within the period under review. Therefore, the study recommends that the Government enact carbon reduction policies through global climate initiatives and agreements to enhance food security.

Key Words: Climate Variability, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, ARDL, Granger Causality, Food Security, Uni-directional, Nigeria