Abstract

The increased rate of urbanization has led to the transformation of landscapes at a higher rate, making the accurate assessment of land use and land cover changes (LULCC) imperative for sustainable urban planning and environmental management. This study presents the geospatial assessment of LULCC in the FCT (Federal Capital Territory) of Nigeria over a 35-year period, selecting the following years: 1987, 2002, 2011, and 2022, based on low cloud cover using remote sensing imagery and GIS techniques. By incorporating integrated cellular automata (CA)-Markov module from IDRISI-TerrSet software, the year 2050 was predicted. The overall accuracy for the four years (1987, 2002, 2011, and 2022) was 89.76%, 88.93%, 87.97%, and 86.54%, respectively. The Kappa coefficients were 0.88, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.83, respectively, which is considered acceptable. From 1987–2022, built-up land gained 881.74 km² in area, barren land gained 73.93 km² in area, forest lost 1,761.85 km² in area, wetland lost 97.44 km² in area, water body gained 1.75 km², shrub land lost 905.77 km², and grassland gained 1,806.47 km². The results of the predicted year (2050) showed that from 2022–2050, built-up land will gain 182.93 km² in area, barren land will gain 119.20 km² in area, forest will lose 39.78 km² in area, wetland will lose 99.94 km² in area, water bodies will gain 1.75 km², shrub land will lose 499.51 km², and grassland will gain 237.91 km². Results from the study will provide insight for urban planners, policymakers, and environmentalists in making decisions geared towards sustainable development and resilient urban growth in the FCT.

Key Words: Geospatial, Remote sensing, CA-Markov, Land use land cover change, Future projection